#LSEFestival - Populism's Global Surge: The Democratic Dilemma Unfolding

Global Elections and Populism’s New Playbook: Navigating Global Divides, Populist Wins, and the Power of Political Narratives

At LSE's "Power and Politics" festival, a panel of political heavyweights gathered to dissect the global democratic landscape amidst a year bursting with elections. From the world's largest democracy to Europe’s political shifts and the uncertain trajectory of the United States, the stage was set for a deep dive into the forces shaping our world. Nick Anstead, Associate Professor at LSE, Mulika Banerjee, Associate Professor in Social Anthropology, Sarah Hobolt, Chair in European Institutions, and Bill Neely, seasoned journalist, explored the common threads and unique challenges across elections in South Africa, India, Europe, and the U.S. This panel hit hard on how power and politics intersect in these democratic moments, touching on everything from populism and technocrats to social inequality and climate change.

Watch the discussion here

The Lowdown:

• South Africa’s elections reveal a nation stuck between political freedom and economic stagnation, with inequality glaring.

• India’s elections, despite challenges of misinformation and institutional weaknesses, delivered a surprise blow to Modi’s dominance.

• Europe grapples with a resurgent far right and voter volatility, as seen in France and Germany’s recent elections.

• The U.S. faces a deeply divided electorate as Trump eyes a potential return, posing a threat to international alliances.

• Across these democracies, common voter concerns persist: economic insecurity, unemployment, housing, and a backlash against immigration.

"The World's Most Unequal Society": South Africa’s Democratic Contradiction

• South Africa holds regular elections, 30 years post-apartheid, but economic freedom lags behind political freedom. Despite vast inequalities—42% unemployment and no basic services in townships—the ruling ANC’s grip was loosened, falling to 40% of the vote.

• The rich-poor divide is staggering, with voters trapped by tribal loyalties even as living conditions worsen.

"South Africa has the richest square mile in the world in Cape Town, but also women scooping water from puddles urinated by monkeys." – Bill Neely

"An Unexpected Blow to Modi": India’s Record-breaking Elections

• With 970 million eligible voters, India’s recent elections were the longest and most unfair in its history. Modi’s BJP party fell short of the 400-seat boast, managing just 240, leading to a reliance on allies.

• Misinformation, hate speech, and a compliant media created a skewed playing field, yet rural India delivered a backlash vote.

• Despite immense challenges—Covid mismanagement, agricultural laws, and rising inequality—Indians turned out in high numbers, with voting seen as an assertion of citizenship.

"People like to vote because they feel politically equal on that day, and rural India showed up in defiance." – Mulika Banerjee

"Is the Center Holding in Europe?": France and Germany's Far-right Surge

• Macron’s centrist gamble in France may face its toughest challenge yet, as Le Pen’s party doubled his vote in the European elections, signaling a seismic shift.

• In Germany, the far-right AfD secured 16%, illustrating the normalization of extremist politics even in post-war Germany.

• Across Europe, the political center is trying to hold, but identity politics—especially around immigration—continues to fuel the far-right's rise.

"Look at France. Marine Le Pen’s party just got double the votes of Macron’s." – Sarah Hobolt

"America's Choice: Between Trump and Biden, Who’s Really Ahead?"

• The U.S. is facing another razor-thin election, where battleground states will decide the outcome. Despite Biden's economic wins, Trump still leads in key swing states, threatening a return to power.

• Pollsters warn Pennsylvania may be out of Biden's reach, with voters swayed by economic grievances over wages, inflation, and housing.

• The key question: can Biden's strategy of "fear of Trump" hold against Trump's populist narrative of economic revival?

"The economy is doing okay, but interest rates are high. Trump’s message of 'Make America Great Again' still resonates in key states." – Bill Neely

What's Next?

Q: If Trump wins, how would his isolationism affect Europe?

• A Trump presidency poses an existential threat to NATO, especially Article 5, which guarantees collective defense. European nations may be forced to strengthen defense alliances and independence.

Q: Does the rise of the far right mean democracy is in decline?

• While populist victories often erode liberal democratic institutions (courts, media), democracy itself persists. The risk lies in undermining the safeguards that protect minority rights and rule of law, which could eventually weaken democracy's foundations.

Who's Who of Speakers:

• Professor Mukulika Banerjee – LSE Associate Professor in Social Anthropology, author, and expert on Indian politics and democracy.

• Bill Neely – Veteran journalist and former NBC News Chief Global Correspondent, with insights on recent elections in South Africa, India, and the U.S.

• Professor Sara Hobolt – Sutherland Chair in European Institutions at LSE, leading studies on European elections, focusing on voters and parties.

• Dr. Nick Anstead – Associate Professor at LSE, expert in political communication, particularly in British politics and social media’s influence.

  
  

Chair:

• Professor Tony Travers – LSE Professor in Government, chairing the event on global power and politics.